The Conservatives are set to lose nearly half of homeowner votes on Thursday, latest polling carried out on behalf of Jackson-Stops reveals.

In 2019’s General Election, homeowners accounted for 38% of the Conservative voter base , whilst today this figures sits at just 19%.

In the national survey conducted by OnePoll reaching over 2,000 respondents across the UK, the analysis shows that overall, homeowners are planning to vote Labour on Thursday (30%) – a stark change from 2019 where the greater majority of homeowners voted Conservative (38%). This fall in votes amongst homeowners is especially fascinating given the Tory party has historically been known as the party of homeownership.

Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, said, “We are observing an interesting shift in the voting patterns of homeowners, with more indicating support for Labour in the upcoming general election. A fall in votes driven by homeowners is especially fascinating given the Tory party has historically been known as the party of homeownership. Whether Conservative voters just feel disenchanted more generally, an appetite for change is clearly evident.

“Labour’s commitment to tackling the housing crisis appears to resonate strongly with voters. Indeed, 27% of respondents highlight the delivery of more affordable and social housing as crucial for improving the housing market.”

Examining the data further, Labour is the favourite party for homeowners who own one property with a mortgage receiving 40% of the votes. This a jump from Labour’s 33% of votes from typical one-property mortgage holders witnessed back in 2019, suggesting many homeowners will be hoping a change of Party leadership could support mortgage affordability and lower interest rates. Conservatives have lost the half of voters in this category, from 27% in 2019, to just 13% today.

Table 1: Voting intentions of homeowners and non-homeowners compared to 2019’s election

Source: Jackson-Stops analysis of national polling data between 24^th June-27^th June 2024.

Overall across all tenure types and demographics, the polling indicates that as the Conservatives lose 16% of votes from 2019, Reform has gained 10% – arguably taking some of the Tory voter base.

However, the biggest losses for Conservative votes came from those who own more than one property without a mortgage – from 59% to 39% today – alongside those who own one home outright – from 46% to 22% today.  It is these two categories of voters – both of whom own homes outright – where Reform is gaining the most votes, currently sitting at 16%.

Today, those who own a singular home outright, without a mortgage, are split with their votes – 22% Labour and 22% Conservative respectively.

Rental splits

The number of renters who do not own a home and intend to vote for the Conservative party on Thursday has halved since the last election, from 20% to just 10%.

In fact, the majority of renters remain loyal to Labour, if not a growing cohort. In 2019, 35% of those who lived in rental accommodation and did not own a home voted Labour, whilst today, polls suggest that this year that figure will see a modest bounce to at least 38%.

The survey indicates that few to none students who live in student accommodation intend to vote Conservative (0%). The student vote, perhaps unsurprisingly, is dominated by Labour (36%).

East-West divide in votes

Labour strongholds – where most respondents indicated that they were voting Labour on July 4^th – were in the North West of England (42%) and the West Midlands (45%).

Conservative strongholds – regions that received the highest number of intentions to vote Conservative at this week’s polls – were in the East of England (25%) and East Midlands (20%).

Leeming continued: “The East-West divide is interesting to see as many might assume the Conservatives dominate the South, where in fact what our results show is that in places like the South East Labour dominates. High house prices and a lack of building in these areas of the country will no doubt be playing a part in these votes.

“In the South East we can see that 17% of our poll plan to vote Conservative next week, whereas in 2019 this figure was more than double at 39%. Where are these Conservative votes going? Labour (25%), Reform (12%) and the Liberal Democrats (16%) have all seen significant upticks this year in the South East – whilst 15% in the region remain undecided.”

There are still votes up for grabs

Some 15% of all homeowners are still undecided on how they’ll vote this week, which is the equivalent of over 2.5 million households who own their home; a figure which is likely to be much larger with a UK average of 2.6 residents per household.

Leeming added: “Housing has been at the heart of this year’s election. Yet, our latest research reveals that 15% of homeowners are still undecided on how they will vote. A final push on housing policies, as seen in the weekend papers, could swing these votes.”