Bank of England to cut interest rates, economists forecast

The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates again this year in what would be a welcome move for buyers, sellers, and of course, estate agents.

UK estate agents have already reported more buyer interest after this month’s BoE rate cut, with the latest data from Rightmove revealing that buyer enquiries in August were up 19% year-on-year, compared with an 11% annual increase in July.

At the meeting earlier this month, the Monetary Policy Committee cut the Bank Rate to 5% from a 16-year high of 5.25%, in a tight 5-4 vote. However, Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized “careful” reductions in borrowing costs going forward.

The Bank of England will cut interest rates just once more this year, in November, a majority of economists said in a Reuters poll, as British inflation is expected to stay above target.

Median forecasts revealed that the BoE would lower Bank Rate once more this year, to 4.75% in November when the next round of quarterly economic forecasting from the central bank is due.

But markets are pricing two more rate cuts, in November and December, with the end-year interest rate at 4.5%.

A majority 65% of economists, 39 of 60, forecast the BoE to only cut rates once more this year, leaving borrowing costs at 4.75%. Twenty saw two or more reductions and one said none.

Median forecasts showed Bank Rate at 4.5% at end-March, 4.25% at end-June and a final 2025 cut to 3.75% in the third quarter.

Of 14 Gilt-edged market makers (GEMMs) who participated in the Reuters survey, 12 predicted one quarter-point cut in November this year, while two predicted 50 basis points of cuts next quarter.

 

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