Average house prices in England and Wales are set to increase by 30% in the next five years, but with a strong north/south divide.
The forecast, published this morning by Rightmove and Oxford Economics, says prices in London will rise by almost 33% by 2019.
In the south-west they will rise by 37%, but in the slowest region, the north-west, by 24%.
The new forecast says the best performing areas will mostly be within commuting distance of London – such as Southampton (+43%), Luton (+41%) and Brighton (+41%).
In the slower northern cities of Carlisle, prices are forecast to go up 17% and in Manchester by 19%.
Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and housing market analyst, said: “Alongside the Rightmove monthly House Price Index which is based on new seller asking prices, we have unique access to other sources of property data from surveyors and property transaction prices at a very local level.
“This has enabled us to work with Oxford Economics to create a unique forecast that can be used as a guide by a number of businesses.
“Understanding the path of future house price growth is a key element of UK economic strategy and decision making.
“Our data-driven forecasts contain insight not previously available from other commentators, or the Government’s own forecasts produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility.”
Eye, whose strong point cannot be said to be mathematics, is very impressed – but please excuse us while we search for a forecast that has actually proved correct over one year, let alone five.
While we delve into our electronic filing cabinet, here is what Rightmove and Oxford Economics say about regional house prices over the next five years.
Regional forecasts
| Region | Five year forecast |
| National (England & Wales) | 30.2% |
| London | 32.5% |
| South East | 37.3% |
| South West | 31.8% |
| East | 35.6% |
| East Midlands | 25.0% |
| West Midlands | 26.5% |
| North East | 25.0% |
| North West | 24.3% |
| Yorkshire & the Humber | 27.9% |
| Wales | 25.9% |
The five fastest performing areas
| Area | Forecast |
| Southampton | 42.9% |
| Luton | 41.0% |
| Brighton | 40.6% |
| Swindon | 40.4% |
| Enfield | 39.5% |
The five slowest performing areas
| Area | Forecast |
| West London | 13.6% |
| Carlisle | 17.4% |
| Lancaster | 18.1% |
| Manchester | 18.8% |
| Northampton | 20.5% |
We leave the last word to “wilko” who posted on Eye on Tuesday regarding the CEBR’s forecast for just next year: “Making predictions is really hard, especially if they are predictions about what will happen in the future.”
We are sure other readers will give us the benefit of their views.
Typo!!!! They mean Subscription fee's!
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Really, Ric – ONLY 30%?? Lucky they don't have you setting their Reps such ridiculously soft targets… ;o)
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Morning PeeBee…… yeh, sorry TYPO from me too, I meant 300%…and they would if they could!
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Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and housing market analyst – where did housing market analyst come from?????! methinks lining up a new career once they get battered on back of Agents Mutual launch……. 🙂
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