Prices tumble right across London’s top markets since peak of three years ago – recovery in sight?

Property prices have tumbled right across London’s prime markets since the peak of 2014, Savills has said.

The falls are greatest in prime central London at 14.4%, but across all the capital’s best markets are down by an average of nearly 7%.

Savills has also reported a 90% increase in asking price cuts for properties valued at £1m or more during the first six months of the year.

Research by the agent, using market wide property data from Twenty Ci, found asking price cut on 10,604 properties marketed at £1m or more, compared with 5,585 in the first half of 2016 – a rise of 90%.

The research found there were 122 asking price reductions for every 100 London properties which sold for more than £1m in the year to the end of June 2017, compared with 76 for every 100 in the rest of the UK.

The number of properties brought to market at £1m upwards in the first half of 2017 also fell 20% in the capital and 8% in the rest of the UK compared with last year.

Sales agreed in this cohort decreased 2% in London but were up 11% in the rest of the UK, while exchanges fell 13% in the capital and increased 2% in the rest of the country, according to the research.

The report said prices in prime central London – areas around Chelsea, Kensington, Westminster and Mayfair– were beginning to find their level and the agent goes on to make bold forecasts for the next five years, claiming the risks of Brexit to London are overplayed.

Savills is forecasting 20.3% growth in house prices in central London between 2018 and 2022, with no growth next year, 2% in 2019 and then 8% in 2020 when there is more Brexit certainty.

The forecasts then predict 5.5% growth in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022 amid the next General Election.

These figures are based on some pretty big assumptions, including a post-Brexit free trade agreement with the EU.

Yolande Barnes, head of world research at Savills, said: “In future, the higher costs now associated with buying a high value home, and the greater exposure to capital gains tax and inheritance tax for overseas owners will continue to moderate price growth regardless of the Brexit outcome.

“But we think the risks regarding London’s position as a global commercial centre have been overplayed.

“Whatever the challenge from other cities, London will almost certainly remain a key global financial centre and develop as one of several European hubs for the growing tech sector. Its prime markets will therefore benefit from new domestic wealth generation as well as attracting wealthy international buyers.”

Savills’ forecasts are below and are for prime markets across Britain.

How does your region fare?

PRIME MARKETS

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

5 year

(2018-2022)

Central London

0.0%

2.0%

8.0%

5.5%

3.5%

20.3%

Other London

-2.0%

0.0%

5.0%

4.5%

2.5%

10.2%

Suburban

0.0%

0.0%

4.5%

4.5%

3.0%

12.5%

Inner Commute

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

4.0%

4.0%

14.7%

Outer Commute

0.0%

1.0%

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

15.3%

Wider South of England & Wales

1.0%

1.5%

3.5%

3.5%

4.0%

14.2%

Midlands/North

1.5%

1.0%

3.0%

3.0%

3.5%

12.6%

Scotland

1.5%

1.5%

3.0%

3.5%

3.5%

13.7%

Forecast assumptions

A Conservative minority government remains throughout the period to 2022 • The London economy grows by 11% over the period of the forecast (2018-2022)* • Job losses in the financial and insurance sectors are contained to no more than 20,000 (a similar scale to those seen in the early 1990s and post credit crunch). Employment in these sectors is retained at circa 350,000 over the remainder of the forecast period • Bank base rates increase to 1.81% by the end of the forecast period* • Transitional agreements are put in place to minimise business disruption as the UK leaves the EU • Brexit ultimately results in a free-trade agreement with the remaining EU members • There are no further changes to Stamp Duty • The 2022 general election is close run, assuming the main political parties maintain the same broad policy agendas currently adopted.

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