‘More agents quitting Zoopla than expected’ says City analyst

| Rosalind Renshaw

The latest City analyst’s report has suggested to investors that it is better to be “happy” than “smart”– references to, respectively, the Rightmove and Zoopla advertising campaigns.

The report, from Exane BNP Paribas, says more agents are so far known to be leaving Zoopla than expected – a total of 764 branches.

Looking at the impact, as so far known, of Agents’ Mutual’s “one other portal” rule, it estimates that of those that have so far quit one of the big two, 82% of that churn has been from Zoopla and 18% from Rightmove.

Analysts had previously forecast the churn to be split 45% from Rightmove and 55% from Zoopla.

Of those agents who have made their “one other portal” decision known, the report says 133 branches are quitting Rightmove and 600 leaving Zoopla.

But to that Zoopla number it adds a further 164 – the 1% churn referred to when the company’s results were announced in November.

The report tips Rightmove as an outperform – although cutting its target price by 3% – but downgrades Zoopla from neutral to underperform, and cuts its target price by 18%.

The report says: “We expect this divergent performance to continue.

“We are more cautious on Zoopla as we are concerned that the impact of Agents’ Mutual is under-estimated … with the group being more exposed as the number two player.”

The report also says that Zoopla had been expected to do particularly well in London because of its PrimeLocation brand.

However, it says that this dominance has not materialised and that “Rightmove’s success in protecting its position in the lucrative prime London market is a further positive and surprise versus market expectations…

“We believe the PrimeLocation brand has lost its lustre with consumers and has declined as a focus for property search.”

It believes that in London, just 32 branches have opted to come off Rightmove, with 162 coming off Zoopla.

The report concludes: “We see the typical agent as significantly more likely to cancel their Zoopla subscription if they choose to join Agents’ Mutual.”

Exane expects around 3,100 branches to actually join Agents’ Mutual at launch, quitting either Rightmove or Zoopla. It estimates there are currently 4,500 AM members –  although noting that updated membership numbers have not been given since October – but believes that only 80% will take up actual membership.

However, the report is not particularly optimistic regarding Agents’ Mutuals’ long-term chances of success.

It expects total branch membership to remain below 20% of the industry in the next three years, and that “structural issues will challenge its longer-term growth prospects”.

It believes that Agents’ Mutual will have a limited marketing spend – far smaller than that of Rightmove and Zoopla – and will “struggle to build the required audience to challenge the incumbent property portals”.

And despite its further downgrading of Zoopla, it nevertheless expects Zoopla to grow its revenue by 6% this year – and Rightmove to grow its by 12%.

The report also points out that Countrywide, the UK’s largest agent, has signed a five-year contract with Rightmove, and that “a number of the largest agents are substantial shareholders in Zoopla”.

Zoopla shares ended yesterday at a new closing low of 182p, down 11p (5.8%) on the day.

Rightmove’s shares bounced 57p (2.6%) to 2252p.

The analyst’s full report is here

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60 Comments

  1. JWVW
    January 9, 2015 at 07:49

    Wakey wakey all you dozy City bums! They're probably all still skiing in Verbier or sunning themselves in Barbados though….

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  2. Jonnie
    January 9, 2015 at 07:49

    Unknown, no website / not launched yet and being commented on in the City, never had this with any other emerging property portal have we? – Jonnie

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  3. Property Ear
    January 9, 2015 at 09:04

    Extract from city analysts report …. "However, the report is not particularly optimistic regarding Agents’ Mutuals’ long-term chances of success. It expects total branch membership to remain below 20% of the industry in the next three years, and that “structural issues will challenge its longer-term growth prospects”.

    Onerous or what?

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    1. RealAgent
      January 9, 2015 at 09:38

      I think you have to put that comment into perspective: they are not involved in the industry so there opinion is purely speculative. I would say that actually, were they involved in the industry, then they would know that there are at least half as many again agents who support the principle of OTM and when it proves to continue to gain traction ,will also join it. But of course you have to talk to estate agents to know that!

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      1. RealAgent
        January 9, 2015 at 09:39

        So sorry that should be *their* of course.

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    2. wilko
      January 9, 2015 at 09:55

      ""However, the report is not particularly optimistic regarding Agents’ Mutuals chances’…..I hope this is the forecast from the same analysts that didn't see OTM having any effect on RM/Z shares at all!

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  4. fluter
    January 9, 2015 at 09:10

    Makes me smile when I see these professional analysts forecasts being exposed for what they are in reality, pure speculation which often is wildly wide of the mark, just as the impact of OTM has been wildly underestimated. For those that are still undecided, back OTM 100% now or do nothing and watch the portals enter our marketplace in the future. Is that what you want?

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  5. Mark Walker
    January 9, 2015 at 09:15

    More leaving Zoopla than expected? We trialled and then ditched them long before Agents Mutual was on the horizon because they made so little splash in our area. 100% of agents in our area are on Rightmove and 50% on Zoopla. How was it ever going to be anything other than Zoopla ditched? Now Zoopla are writing directly to our customers… Is that supposed to impress us to use them? The last desperate throw of the dice of a soon follow friendsreunited.com…

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    1. Taff
      January 9, 2015 at 18:03

      Actually, Rightmove e-mailed us to say that they were contacting to owners to claim their "free" Premium Listing in the Swansea area. So far, not one owners has asked us to take them up on their offer. I can't think why they would do that! I'm being sarcastic. "BNP Paribas believes that Agents’ Mutual will have a limited marketing spend – far smaller than that of Rightmove and Zoopla – and will “struggle to build the required audience to challenge the incumbent property portals”. Really? Have BNP Paribas calculated the collective advertising spend of EVERY OTM agent, inc the value of our window advertising, the the value of our massive advertising mailing lists? I seriously doubt it. Go on – put a value on that!!

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  6. RealAgent
    January 9, 2015 at 09:44

    I think the interesting thing here is the number of agents leaving Zoopla in London. I wouldn't have expected that as Z is widely perceived to be the preferred agent portal there. Its difficult to know what area of London is in their sample but 162 branches with what 6500 properties for sale (?) and perhaps half as many again to let, thats got to be noticed.

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    1. Paul H
      January 9, 2015 at 09:48

      Believe me Z are in big trouble in London, big big trouble. Of the 17 signed up in my area, I do not know of any staying on Zoopla.

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      1. wilko
        January 9, 2015 at 10:19

        I think it is not only London but the South East in general.

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    2. Shaun77
      January 9, 2015 at 11:18

      Winkworth are the largest agent in London and they've dropped Z.

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  7. Eamonn
    January 9, 2015 at 10:04

    We must wonder what deal has been struck between Rightmove and Countrywide. Both would have been keen to secure each other.
    No doubt a rate in line with OTM plus access to exclusive products offered by RM.
    However no doubt if you are ever lucky enough to speak with a RM rep they will lie to your face and say that they look to treat all members equally.

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    1. smile please
      January 9, 2015 at 10:15

      Countrywide pay circa £150 per branch per month for RM for the top tier service and get MASSIVLEY reduced products. Premium listings at less than £5 etc

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      1. wilko
        January 9, 2015 at 10:28

        I can second that smile….even though Countrywide can't join OTM yet-(they have indicated they want to when they are able) they have still negotiated a cracking deal with RM. One of the big negatives for those that have committed to RM and Z (not OTM) is that they will be the ones that are top of the list for increases as they have no bargaining power.

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        1. smile please
          January 9, 2015 at 13:56

          Countrywide spend circa £350 pm per branch for all internet and portal advertising this includes RM, Z, Propertywide, SEO their own websites and all feeds. From what I understand they are allowed to join AM but have decided not to as they cannot get a "Deal" that they like, and currently paying £350 per month for everything who can blame them!

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          1. Woodentop
            January 9, 2015 at 15:51

            That's because they can't get a deal, they have to pay the same as everyone else for once and about time.

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          2. smile please
            January 9, 2015 at 16:18

            Yes I know that Woodtop and agree.

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  8. Property Pundit
    January 9, 2015 at 10:12

    My favourite part is this: 'And despite its further downgrading of Zoopla, it nevertheless expects Zoopla to grow its revenue by 6% this year – and Rightmove to grow its by 12%.' It's all about the growth, innit?

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  9. Paul H
    January 9, 2015 at 10:16

    Very interesting report (yet again!) with the clear pattern being that each new one published is amended from the previous report to show an even bigger (than previously predicted) impact on the duopoly's bottom line. And all of this without any real concrete numbers…as someone has already said it is still just guesswork and conjecture and with no real understanding of the concept or the will of agents to make OnTheMarket a success. Or in the least this is not being put across in their reports.

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    1. Paul H
      January 9, 2015 at 11:50

      Heres a cracker….remember Jefferies, the firm that helped put together the Zoopla flotation and came out in December with an outrageously biased report favouring Zoopla, will they've just downgraded Zooplas rating. #ratsleavingaskinkingship

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  10. Property Ear
    January 9, 2015 at 10:17

    It's also very interesting to note how quiet RM are regarding OTM but need they be too bothered? I don't recall Coca Cola being overly concerned about Virgin's challenge either. At this point in time and without the hoped for mass exodus taking place they appear to be coming more invincible by the day?

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    1. wilko
      January 9, 2015 at 10:33

      "how quiet RM are regarding OTM"…yes I thought that was interesting…I recently sent new photos for our RM profiles for all branches. As they are now heavily liveried in OTM target pins and "otm coming soon" banners, I thought they may ping them back as they are visible ads for OTM….They uploaded them and didn't bat an eyelid.

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  11. Jonnie
    January 9, 2015 at 11:09

    Ill take any kicking I might get for bringing this up again but Romans haven't been on Zoopla ever. Couple of things from that, has not being on there damaged their market share (in some towns near domination) their ability to sell huge amounts of new homes for a vast array of builders or have 20 odd offices and sell out for god knows how many millions it was, answer is no to all of them. If anyone out there reckons they will have the upper hand over their competition because they are on Z and others aren't you are as mad as a badger and have a cack proposition for your clients – Jonnie

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    1. smile please
      January 9, 2015 at 12:42

      Very true! – But same can be said for the agents that are saying you NEED to be OTM ;0)

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      1. Jonnie
        January 9, 2015 at 13:11

        @smileplease Fair point…………….but, there's been lots of gobbing off from the budget sector (and others) led by the self appointed gob on a stick that is Fasal Butts boy that not being on Z is the end of the world for a vendor (oddly while he / they are very cross they cant be on it) – No pro OTM agent has embarrassed themselves by flipping that on its bonce have they? – Jonnie

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        1. smile please
          January 9, 2015 at 13:19

          Plenty embarrassing things have been said both sides, I am sure like me you want to see what has happened come May / June so at least one camp can calm down.

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  12. GPL
    January 9, 2015 at 12:13

    Astonishing talent from the Dept of Smoke & Mirrors!…. oops!….. City Analysts! We should cast our view across their historical "analysis" of the impact of OTM on Zoopla & Rightmove….. versus the reality! And these folk get paid to spout this baseless nonsense… then correct it on their next analysis/report. STOP PRESS!….. Zoopla are a lame duck!…. not really news as that was predictable….. it's the cunning Rightmove that I am interested in!…… although what am I most interested in?….. the rise of OnTheMarket.com! ….. and eventually the reshuffling of the pack as it seems entirely feasible for OnTheMarket.com to rise to the No1 Portal!….. and frankly, if estate agents care about the real future of their business they should be sprinting towards OnTheMarket.com! Thanks go to all the estate agents who have stepped on board OnTheMarket.com as without them our trousers & skirts would be at our ankles with Zoopla and Rightmove laughing!….. we don't need to laugh or gloat as we took OnTheMarket.com seriously from Day 1!…… hence the following announcement "The train arriving at Platform One is the OnTheMarket.com express……. get on board!"

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    1. smile please
      January 9, 2015 at 12:46

      wow sounds like you had 3 Weetabix this morning GPL!

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      1. Benay
        January 9, 2015 at 12:54

        More like-Cheese on toast. Bet that has been written on a jotter since Christmas waiting for the right moment. Slam dunk, get in there.

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    2. Property Ear
      January 9, 2015 at 12:49

      Similar excitement was expressed for the launch of The Titanic!!

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  13. Woodentop
    January 9, 2015 at 15:58

    RM are not worried, YEY but I suspect anyone who has his head screwed on in that organisation will be worried about the future. The trend is to keep RM in preference to Z when OTM launches. What will worry them is when OTM has shown it works for those doubters, the high street agents will not want to be on RM with all its issues and will pull the plug on RM in droves, then you will see a change. Only time will tell but the writing is on the wall, or there would be no issues with RM and the need for OTM and 30% of high street advertising for RM will cease on 26th Jan.

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    1. smile please
      January 9, 2015 at 16:22

      This is one of the most ridicules posts on OTM yet! – absolutely no substance to this at all. You mock the city boys and come out with this! There is no writing on the wall for RM they are stronger now than ever! If you want to endorse OTM fine, if you believe in it fine but this stinks of hypocrisy given the grief online agents and city boys get!

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      1. Cardiff Agent
        January 9, 2015 at 17:01

        Few would predict the demise of RM, but it has been noted that many of the Agents in this area, who have taken the 'safe' option of retaining RM as their 'other Portal', have let it be known, that they would drop RM like a stone, if OTM proves successful, so the future may not be as rosey as some think. Just ponder Tesco.

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        1. smile please
          January 9, 2015 at 17:11

          Don't get me wrong if OTM can do what they promise I will drop RM like a stone but to say the writing is on the wall is premature – When I opened my own agency with all the experience I had and hope and aspirations my plan was to grow it to 10 offices in 5 years and sell, why could this not happen? – well I am nearly half way there and my 5 years has been and gone, not as easy as I thought …… will leave a few to ponder that.

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  14. Property Pundit
    January 9, 2015 at 17:40

    Strage how on this particular thread we don't here from the likes of Harree, 1stTimeBuyer, commonsense and all the other usual suspects.

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  15. Chrispy
    January 9, 2015 at 20:13

    Have to agree with Smile Please, funny how no one has mentioned what the public think about all this, we'll continue to inform them that alongside everything we provide their property will be put in front of the largest audience available.

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    1. Ric
      January 10, 2015 at 08:55

      What would they think? The OTM agents will have picked the "other" portal which provides the "largest audience available" and we know that does not mean BOTH RM & Z, too many agents have proven this who only ever listed on RM or Z alone……. in fact my letter to clients is "This year we are increasing your internet presence" by listing you on the exciting new OTM.com bla bla…… So what would my Audience think? bearing in mind they know I am not on Z now!

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    2. smile please
      January 10, 2015 at 09:30

      Chrispy, Just to clarify I do not think it really matters where the properties are as the consumers will find them if there are significant numbers of property on a site that is promoted by the agents (this OTM has). It was more a pinch of reality that OTM has no real USP to speak of and is years away at best challenging RM

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      1. Ric
        January 10, 2015 at 09:41

        I like how "no chance" has turned to "years away" from challenging RM in some of these debates….. 16 days time……. the facts will be out there….. So lets all wait and see.

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        1. smile please
          January 10, 2015 at 09:47

          If your happy Ric I can go back to no chance as that is more realistic. And 16 days will not prove a thing 6 months 12 months and 18 months from start are the dates to look at.

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          1. Paul H
            January 10, 2015 at 10:03

            Starting to sound a bit unconfident there Smile Please! Good news is that you only have 5 and a half months before your contract on Zoopla runs out.

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          2. smile please
            January 10, 2015 at 10:28

            Unconfident is what???? See this is the issue I have with OTM I have no idea who you are Paul, no idea who Ric is and you have no idea who I am. Yet you all are so emotional and take everything so personally its clouds your judgement. You think that people who sit on the fence or do not agree with you are "Worried" or they are "Thick" or have an motive to run OTM down. I look at the facts and make a balanced view. I have never run down OTM, never said I want it to fail and I have never said competing portals are the be all and end all. However you and a number of posters have taken it upon yourselves to make outrages claims that cannot be substantiated. And the majority of these posters run down online only agents, city analysts who do the same. Half the reason I have not at this stage signed up to OTM is because of people like you Paul. You are so blinkered in your approach and trust whole heartedly in the board of AM, I don't trust the like of you to promote something I am apart of, and the problem is there are too many blinked individuals I feel that if things did not go as planned would just blindly follow. You seem to think that if OTM has a quarter of the market and agents promote the portal it will be a success? – What is a success to you Paul? to me its becoming the portal of choice i.e. bigger than RM. I can see Ric has not been on 2 portals and is now increasing marketing, this in my opinion is a great idea but how many of circa 4500 is this a case? Do yourself and your members a favour Paul, wind your neck in, by all means promote OTM but at least try and be realistic. I know I am not afraid to speak up and put my head above the pit and you may think that I am thick, have an agenda or scared but there are MANY other readers of these threads that have the same worries but just don't voice them (same as many more supporters of OTM and do not voice that).

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          3. Ric
            January 10, 2015 at 13:18

            Thanks smileplease, I am fully aware that on the 26th everything will be decided, I have said many times before 1, 2 and 3 years….. we signed up to the fact it may even take 5 years,…….. what I am saying is on the 26th, a clear sign will be set as to who has dropped who and who has even decided to increase spend like us…. no more guessing in 16 days, just fact as to how OTM looks and how the public will start to react.

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          4. Ric
            January 10, 2015 at 13:31

            No reply option on your next comment smileplease….. so in reply………………… you are right in that I am also keen to understand how many non-Z supporting agents have joined……………………I am lucky in a way that I never really felt it with Z so can argue my clients fact will not suffer and those who wanted to be on Z would never have used me anyway…………………………..so win win for my existing stock and hopefully future stock………….. I hope OTM works and it can convince people like you to sign up then eventually we will have you and other fencesitters on board as the more people like you who swap over the bigger the market share will be and eventually it will succeed as a result.

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          5. smile please
            January 10, 2015 at 13:35

            Ric it cant come soon enough! And for what its worth I hope there are enough agents that it gains traction and can in time challenge RM!

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          6. smile please
            January 10, 2015 at 13:39

            Ric nothing will make me happier to swop over at some point as that means it will work for me and my business. And if I had only been on RM I would invest the money in OTM myself as I have nothing to lose just £300 odd quid a month. Its posts like this that make sense to me and I can agree with rather than some of your members that make hollow promises and claims.

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          7. Ric
            January 10, 2015 at 13:49

            We will see….. it has to be said it's caused quite a stir so far and possible this in itself is a sign…….. I did a valuation this morning and talked about it and it was another "oh great, I will make a note" when I mentioned Z and why we do not advertise on it (as we do) the wife, said "oh I don't like that site" and talked about RM and the fact you may see properties listed on OTM before RM locally come the 26th and how would he feel if it was his home, he actually said he suspected I will have the best buyers registered…………………. which is music to the ears, that most sensible home owners know the portals are an extra and not what a decent agent relies upon……..I think what is lost on here sometimes is that for or against comments, still plenty of decent agents in both camps……….. Have a great weekend….. my wife is doing that snarly face at me now so need to get off line before I will better off back in the office.

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  16. Paul H
    January 10, 2015 at 10:47

    Smile please…."Half the reason I have not at this stage signed up to OTM is because of people like you Paul."…What a pathetic comment, sorry but you've completely lost any credibility that I had for you. Your now saying that your making business decisions based on who else has signed up as opposed to what is right for your business. You sound like a bit of a sheep to me Smile Please, the type of guy that follows the crowd(of course as yet you don't actually know which direction the crowd is heading in) as opposed to being a leader. Instead you come out with stuff like…"I suggest no one signs up now until a few months after launch". Hey only 4 months and 21 days until you can issue notice to Zoopla, tick tock.

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    1. smile please
      January 10, 2015 at 10:57

      Think you just proved my point Paul. For my business, in my geographical location, in the market I work in, I have made the right business choice. Don't flatter yourself and think you are the only reason I made the choice I did, but posters similar to you were a factor. Take for example the picture tweeted and displayed on this very site yesterday. Poor photograph, tasteless use of OTM logo and spelling mistakes. And this was suppose to be positive PR. A number of agents were running it down let alone what the public think! – I honestly wish OTM all the best and one day hope to sign up, but please Paul get your feet back on the ground and pull your head out your a***

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      1. Paul H
        January 10, 2015 at 11:16

        Your now not signing up because of someone's window sticker display. Are you being serious?!

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        1. smile please
          January 10, 2015 at 11:21

          You just don't get it do you!? – Can you only pick up one syllable at a time Paul? is that why you back OTM? A nice man said to you that you don't have to pay the high costs of RM all you have to do is back his new portal? – That is how basic you sound in all your posts Paul. There is another thread going on this site about some of the hilarious posters we have had from the past, Rant n Rave, Dave from Japan, etc You are starting to head that way Paul H

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          1. Paul H
            January 10, 2015 at 11:42

            We've certainly learnt a lot about your firms decision making process today Smile Please. I've just noticed that the company that have put up the window display in a style that you don't agree with are on Rightmove along with myself. I assume your cancellation letter to Rightmove was sent yesterday?

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          2. smile please
            January 10, 2015 at 11:51

            Paul please stop mugging yourself off this is painful, its like kicking a puppy! – You NEVER address the actual point, you NEVER back up your thoughts with facts. But you take a comment and try and turn it into something its not. At what point did I say the sole reason I am not signed up to OTM is because of a window sticker? Likewise if I saw an agent with 20 purple zoopla stickers I would mock them. Difference is Paul RM and Z have market share OTM does not. You are right about one thing though Paul. The comments do give a good insight into agents (I am quite happy with my comments and standing by the way) but I would love to come up against you on a valuation as all you do is bang on about OTM and how everybody should be on it but when pushed as to why you then go back and just keep saying its wonderful. I am sure a seller will buy into that. Whats you postcode again? looking to open a new office third quarter of 2015!

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  17. Paul H
    January 10, 2015 at 12:18

    Smile Please said…"Paul half the reason I have not signed up to OTM is because of people like you"..and "I don't trust people like you to promote something I am apart of. I think it fairly obvious from those two comments alone who is the one mugging them self off. A bad morning at the office for you old boy perhaps you should start fresh on Monday.

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    1. smile please
      January 10, 2015 at 12:39

      Paul your comments hold no weight and are ill thoughts out and you continue to twist other peoples comments to suit your standing. I could easily go through your post and twist them. If you took the trouble to read my comments with an open mind you will see I am right as I have not speculated on anything its fact. And I stand by my comment of people such as you are more than a hindrance than a help to OTM. If you pass this thread to an impartial observer I know the one they would say has more credence and thought (oh and buy the way those people are your paying customers). The thing that makes me laugh is if OTM does fail it wont be your fault it will be my fault and other agents that have not supported it and all you are doing is alienating yourself further. Go print off a few more stickers, shout a bit louder how OTM is the place to be and run down a few more people and your weekend will be complete Paul.

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      1. Paul H
        January 10, 2015 at 13:13

        "You continue to twist other peoples comments"…what like this comment…"it's people like you that are half the reason why I don't sign up"…yet you go on to say that "I stand by my comment that people such as you are more than a hindrance"…doesn't sound like I'm twisting your words in fact you seem to be agreeing of my assessment that your making your business decision based on who else has signed up…."The thing is if OTM does fail it will not be your fault but my fault for not signing up"…how about you pull your head out your own a*s & make a decision based not on what I think but on what you think. Come on grow a pair or hand the decision making in your firm over to a proper leader.

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        1. smile please
          January 10, 2015 at 13:27

          Its like speaking to my 3 year old and I say no and they keep asking why? – Paul ITS A FACTOR not the sole reason, you take it out on context of the post. I have real thought out reason why I am not signing up and posted many times and I am not going to do it again. Most of these you know about as you have seen. You are getting frustrated with me because I have a brain and think about it and decided against it at this time. The reason I am frustrated with you is not because you have signed up but all the c**p you keep posting on OTM without any fact or evidence to back it up with. If we go right back to the beginning of this thread you say I am unconfident and yet I ask about what???!!! I want OTM to work! But your blinkered ill educated mind makes you think just because I have not signed up I am against it. I am not even going to bother to ask you why I should sign up as all I get if you ever bother to address the question is the same drivel that is not right for my business. As for handing my firm onto a "Leader" I have multi offices all in profit and within the top three of best performers in all areas and some areas top all achieved in just over 5 years. Thanks for the tip tho!

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  18. NewsBoy
    January 10, 2015 at 13:22

    It has started then. First Z then RM.

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