If interest rates rise soon ‘housing market will take a dive’, warning

A rise in interest rates could damage the housing market, a senior industry figure has warned.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney gave the clearest indication yet on Friday that interest rates will rise before long, although he did not say exactly when or by how much.

Carney spoke as the Bank released data showing approvals for house purchase dipped in August to 66,580 from 68,452 in July. Lending was still above the six-month average of 66,367.

Commenting on the figures, John Phillips, sales operations director for Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart, said: “The picture is still one of a steady market which is encouraging given the changeable political landscape.

“However, if the Bank of England, as has been intimated, put rates up before Christmas I am in no doubt that the market will take a dive.”

There has already been a rush by some lenders to scrap their cheapest deals and put up prices, anticipating a rise in base rate.

While these could result in only small rises in monthly mortgage payments, the concern is whether a hike in the base rate would be a one-off or the first of a series of increases.

Meanwhile, London house prices have fallen for the first time in eight years, Nationwide has reported.

The lender’s September House Price Index showed that London prices fell 0.6% annually in the third quarter to £471,161.

This was the first time since the same period in 2009 that annual prices have fallen across the capital.

Across the rest of the UK, prices rose 2.2% on yearly basis to £210,982 in the three months to September.

The east midlands was the top performer, for the first time since 2002, with prices up 5.1% year-on-year to £177,825 in the third quarter.

The headline figures, based on monthly changes, are slightly more positive, showing growth of 0.2% between August and September to £210,116, an improvement on the previous month’s 0.1% decline.

Price growth was up 2% annually in September, slightly down on the 2.1% recorded in August.

Robert Gardner, chief economist for Nationwide, said: “House price growth rates across the UK have converged in recent quarters. Annual growth rates in the south of England have moderated towards those prevailing in the rest of the country.

“London has seen a particularly marked slowdown, with prices falling in annual terms for the first time in eight years, albeit by a modest 0.6%. Consequently, London was the weakest performing region for the first time since 2005.”

Commenting on the figures, Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent, said: “These figures show the north-south divide in reverse and confirms what we have been seeing on the ground – that the London market is struggling for mainly affordability reasons and it is only those sellers who recognise the changed market conditions that are doing deals.

“Buyers and sellers are still nervous about prospects for the market in view of lack of perceived progress in Brexit negotiations and concerns about imminent rises in interest rates.”

The concerns about a lack of buyer confidence chime with the latest NAEA Propertymark Housing Report for August, which showed the number of house hunters registered at estate agent member branches dropped to a 12-month low of 343 on average.

However, the number of properties available to buy did increase marginally from 35 in July to 37 in August.

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3 Comments

  1. Anonymous Coward

    Doomed, I tell ye! Doomed…!

    TBH, the main problem appears to be unsecured lending – car loans and credit cards.

    I think the housing market might become an issue because people batten down the hatches, but all that will do is to reduce stock levels again.

    Good properties will sell for good money to people who have no choice but to move.

    Prices might twitch at the most.

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  2. zep-123

    Vanessa couldn’t agree more next year is going to be telling as the less clued up landlords do their first return. Professional landlords like myself have already taken steps and will carry on and expand. It’s the poor tenants I feel sorry for as there will be a lot of sell offs esspecially larger family homes with the biggest mortgages. Already seeing it on London with record numbers in temp accommodation due to landlords selling as the south is going to be hit hardest. Just ask yourself in the middle of a housing crisis the government do this to make it worse it really is mind boggling. There should be incentives for investors to expand imagine how bad the crisis would be without the PRS. This will unravel over the next few years and it’s going to be horrendous Mark my words

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  3. Property Paddy

    TBH

    The sooner interest rates go up the better.

    There are too many home owners not selling because they can afford to stay as they are and not move. this is causing a huge shortage in property for sale and stifling the market.

    If it slows much more we wont have a property market and then you would see a collapse.

    You have been warned.

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