The great mystery continues – just how many homes does Purplebricks sell or put under offer?
According to Google ads very recently spotted by one of our readers, it’s every 30 minutes.
Which, says East Anglian agent Andrew Overman, equates to 17,520 or so a year.
But only last December, as EYE reported at the time, Purplebricks was quoting a sale every 16 minutes, 24 hours of the day – just about double. In fact, a sale every 16 minutes would equate to 32,850 sales per year.
Could sales have halved since December? We asked Purplebricks which figure is correct.
There was no comment from the firm which does not disclose its sales run rate but does say that when it talks about sales, the figures are SSTC.
However, we understand that there is no argument that Purplebricks has made and stands by both the 16-minute and 30-minute claims – and that either or both will easily stand up in court, should that prove necessary.
We are in profit for first time, triumphant Purplebricks tells shareholders
Oh that’s cleared that up then!
Great to see a company like Purplebricks being SO transparent, clear and concise with their figures.
I say again…Whilst the rate of actual sales has only a partial ( though significant) impact on their overall income, these statistics are meaningful and relevant to a prospective house seller seeking to assess the likelihood of achieving a sale with this estate agent.
Accuracy is critical.
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http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/40711061#693XizwE6uzrM4x1.97
Well here is one that definitely hasnt sold in 30 minutes.
Its 2nd birthday of unsoldness kicked in over the weekend ..Just take a look at the asking price its £54,950 !
Vendor has already paid a 1.5% plus “fee” for the privilege .That takes some beating !
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No EPC either….
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Looks like something from Homes under the Hammer, and can anyone tell me just exactly what ” A Greatterraced Property ” is ? under property features
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‘Just take a look at the asking price its £54,950 !’
I would suggest a far more telling thing would be to take a look at the Price HISTORY:
7/5/15: Listed at £69,950
5/6/15: Reduced to £62,950
4/7/15: Reduced to £59,500
22/8/15: Reduced to £55,950
2/2/16: Reduced to £54,950
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The plot thickens…
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Yes but what they don’t report is nearly all their sales agreed are to unproceedable unqualified buyers and god help any proper agents trying to confirm a chain, they struggle to even know the name of a buyer and god forbid their is a chain…the 17 year old call centre working asked us to explain what a chain was and then couldn’t see the problem when we told them their own buyer hasn’t even got their own property on the market…..and of course if 80% of their sales are falling through and they are getting rubbish prices for their clients then it’s easy to keep agreeing sales!
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On BBC MoneyBox, Mr Bruce was asked three times if the 88% sales he was clawing at the time meant legal completions. Three times he confirmed that is what he meant. The figures and that formal statement by a CEO of a PLC clearly show that that statement needs to be, how shall I say..’revisited’, by the ASA, the TSO, stock exchange etc.
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>On BBC MoneyBox, Mr Bruce was asked three times if the 88% sales he was clawing at the time meant legal completions. Three times he confirmed that is what he meant.
No that’s not right. He was asked about how many sell (not legal completions) and didn’t give a figure, then asked again and answered that they sell 88% and then asked to confirm which he did. No mention of legal completion whatsoever. For somebody expecting high standards from everybody else you get a lot wrong.
>>Purplebricks has made and stands by both the 16-minute and 30-minute claims – and that either or both will easily stand up in court, should that prove necessary.
Time to put your money where your mouth is Chris? At least get your facts right.
So your concern is for the 3 people who listened to the radio program and went on to use purplebricks with most likely 2 of them selling the property and the other able to relist when it suits them. Not really something for the ASA or TSO to be spending too much time on even if the figure was incorrect (according to you).
I imagine investors who bought shares in December 2016 will be very pleased that the shares have risen from about £1.40 to £3.36. The few who bought after listening to the radio will probably have sold by now and made a handsom profit.
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Paul Lewis “What percentage of your customers pay a fee but their property does not sell?”
Michael Bruce “Very few”
Michael Bruce (after being pushed on whether one in three or one in seven homes sell) “88% of people sell their house prior to getting to the period of deferment which is 10 months and, you know, at the end of the day, we sell more houses as a percentage of what we take to the market of any other agent in the UK”
Paul Lewis “88% of people who list with you sell their home?”
Michael Bruce “Correct!…. 88% of people sell their house prior to the deferment period”
Prior to this snippet, Michael Bruce was being questioned about those who pay but do not sell i.e. complete on the transaction. It is crystal clear that Mr Bruce was talking about a sale in the meaning of the the word completion. If not Mr Bruce needs to publicly clarify his figures. He has a duty to do so as the CEO of a PLC making public announcements.
Here is the clip. Mr Bruce is questioned for the first four minutes including an interview with an unhappy customer who felt she had not been made fully aware of being signed up for a loan by Close Brothers (Purplebricks finance partners)
Link to clip http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04c9578
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So not what you originally said “Mr Bruce was asked three times if the 88% sales he was clawing at the time meant legal completions. Three times he confirmed that is what he meant”
No mention of legal completions. Asked twice, answered once and confirmed once. Exactly what I said.
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It is very clear to any reasonable person that the subject under discussion is selling as in completion. “What percentage of your customers pay a fee but their property does not sell?” i.e. complete.
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LOOK EVERYONE… it’s a duck shoot!
Fish in a barrel stand more chance.
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Does Dianne Abbott do Mr Bruce’s figures ? 🙂
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PB are online ONLY agents whereas traditional agents are High Street AND online. I wish presnters and commentators would use the right terminology
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Do all high st agents allow buyers to book viewings 24 hours a day and make offers 24 hours a day?
That’s what the “online” part is about; using technology to improve customer experience.
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The only true test is completions. For online listers to claim they can save people any money at all they should be made to accurately reveal their completion to listing ratio, and the ‘average completion fee’ thus worked out (for instance if you charge £1,000 and have a completion to listing ratio of 50%, your ACF is actually £2,000). Otherwise you shouldn’t be able to claim you save anybody anything compared to ‘No Sale No Fee’.
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Therefore all high street agents should have to do the same.
Time is money after all.
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An ordinary Joe Blow agent can get away with saying what they like until their local competition complains about the claims.
A PLC that has yet to make any profit and is heavily reliant on investor cash for its survival, its marketing its everything can’t, the stock exchange doesn’t allow it. This story is an indication that there is a worrying confusion over the numbers that ought to be investigated.
When it was claimed that Purplebrick exchange contracts on 88% of everything they list, I did not believe it, same as I didn’t believe claims that another agent can sell everything within 3 months for 99% of asking price. The ridiculous marketing exaggerations that led to the discovery of widespread manipulation of portal listings in Summer 2015 motivated me to look at the 88% claim.
There is a contradiction of numbers, each performance claim seems to logically contradict other stuff that is claimed. Only if Purplebricks are underselling by about 27.27% average can the numbers possibly work. I am fairly certain that isn’t the case so someone really needs to investigate the number of invoiced listings and compare that with those which have legally completed due to Purplebricks being effective cause of sale.
Properties appearing as completed transactions at land registry where another agent agreed the sale is something that has to be considered. Last time I looked there were 1690 properties listed as sold by another agent.
Mathematics can’t be manipulated, £2.7billion of completions in 6 months is a claim that equates to about 9642 completions of £280,000, the UK actual transaction average for the period. It is 12,272 completions at the Land registry average which is based on about 36% of actual transactions.
I have an inreasingly in depth analysis of everything that’s been going on since September 2015, My data can’t be used to prove one way or the other whether any claims are correct or incorrect, only a full and proper audit of every listing and every completion can establish such fact.
Investor patience will no doubt run out if the HUGE profits and massive market share of transactions have failed to materialise for yet another year, so it is probably the investors who are expecting HUGE dividends who ought to demanding clarification of the numbers claimed, just in case they have been misled by exaggerated marketing claims being confused with fact.
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>Mathematics can’t be manipulated, £2.7billion of completions in 6 months is a claim that equates to about 9642 completions of £280,000, the UK actual transaction average for the period. It is 12,272 completions at the Land registry average which is based on about 36% of actual transactions.
Could you explain what you are saying. Are you saying data cannot be manipulated?
Can you elaborate on where you get your figures from and what your calcualtions are?
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the £2.7 billion of completions in 6 months came from a press release at the beginning of December. The actual £average sale price is the total of all transactions added to land registry divided by the volume of transaction for the priod. it includes properties only sold once and new build completions ie including the 64% of transactions Land registry ignore when they produce their average property price of £220,000
The post details the calcualtion. 2700000000/280000= 9642 or 2700000000/220000= 12272
Either the value of transactions published was a made up figure based on the actual number of completions that was multipled by the wrong average value, or the actual value of properties sold was accurate but the volume sold was lower.
Marketing and PR people never seem to understand that volume, price and every other bit of performance spin or fact have to correlate otherwise they contradict themselves between stories.
If an agent agrees a sale every 16 minutes but exchanges contracts every 32 minutes it mean half of all agreed sales fall through.
If the 88% sales agreed figure referred to agreed sales that might be right but the listing to sold ratio is 44% not 88% as claimed.
As I said someone needs to audit the numbers for the sake of clarity. 17520 completions at 88% listing to sold is only 19909 listings. 17520 completions out of 36,000 listing is a listing/ sold ratio of 48% not 88% as claimed
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Your figure probaly come form the interim statement made by the company in early December 2016. The figures quoted were:
“Sold and completed on £2.589bn of property in H1 2017”
These completions were in the period 1st May 2016 to 31st October 2016 so would have been for listings from earlier with many of them from the earlier trading period. The statement about completing every 16 minutes was a statement made in December about the current situation not the 6 month period. So you can’t do what you are doing and apply the current situation (whatever that means) to the prior period.
PurpleBricks do not stand still. There is an underlying growth from month to month, week to week which is affected by seasonal variations. You have to be very careful when analysing the figures and shouldn’t really be taking them from news reports which just pluck out various comments and don’t attribute a time frame to them.
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Purplebricks market share of the total market* has been relatively static for some months in a market where volume instructions have been decreasing.
*Purplebricks is increasing its market share of the call-centre agents sector but, the sector as a whole has also seemingly peaked.
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>Purplebricks market share of the total market* has been relatively static for some months in a market where volume instructions have been decreasing.
Perhaps that’s the case in Penzance but it’s not Nationally.
Market share up over 30% since February. This is from data that has been used to predict PurpleBricks’ second half instructions with a high degree of accuracy.
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“Market share up over 30% since February.”
I would suggest this to be incorrect. Feel free to prove otherwise – you apparently have the highly accurate data.
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A suggested tweet for everyone to send out;
Selling a property? Commission is paid on a completed sale. It’s the sign of success. Don’t pay up front fixed fees for failure! #CONmisery
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Previously stated fact £2.7 billion worth completions in 6 months at 1 sales every 16 minutes? £sales worth divide by transaction number = average sale value = £164,383 (41%….£115,617 less than the UK transaction average)
1.44% (Hayter average commission inc VAT) of £164,383 = £2367.12 less Purplebrick average fee £1060 = £1307 saving not quite the commisery the advert claims is it?
I didn’t realise their average achieved sale price was so much lower than the national average!
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Robert, your logic is flawed and you are spinning the data to suit your agenda.
Didn’t you say Mathematics can’t be manipulated – Sounds like a bit of ‘sales talk’ there. 🙂
There’s a time lag for completions from listings so the completions in that time period would have been listings from earlier with some if not most of them being from the prior 6 month period.
You are speculating about timeframes a comment about current completions in December 2016 cannot be applied to the whole year just as it cannot be applied to a later time period.
If you look at the number of listings in 2015 for PurpleBricks it is 4330, rising to 19200 in 2016. These numbers that you are quoting as though they apply to both the past and the future are changing all the time.
Little wonder that your efforts with trading standards didn’t turn out as you expected.
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No I’m not. I wasn’t the one who claimed £2.7b sales for the first 6 months of the trading year. Are you saying PB used sales outside the reporting period to exaggerate performance?
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>Are you saying PB used sales outside the reporting period to exaggerate performance?
No, it’s fairly obvious that when they refer to completions in a period it is actually completions in that period rather than instructions in that period that have since completed which is what you are basing your calculations on
It is just you that is wrong. I would give you the benefit of doubt and say you were just mistaken rather than being disingenuous.
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the completions surely covered same period as the claim of 88% lising to sales ratio or was Bruce talking in the past tense when he referred to 88%?
As I said there is so much contradiction , so much ambiguity it needs investigating, CEO’s of listed firms aren’t allowed to make up numbers and state them as fact.
The claims made to lure in investors, we will make huge profits by 2016 of £24.9m, we will have 10% of all transactions by then and have 480 listing reps are the yardstick against which Purplebricks should be measured.
The actual profit will be evident soon enough, the number of reps affiliated to Purplebricks is known to be short of last years predicted target but for some reason the number of completions , the sales run rate is now something the firm does not disclose. That’s a bit odd but probably explained by the fact it is nowhere near 90,000 completions (10% of transaction for the period)
It isn’t me being disingenuous I am simply trying to work out what is fact and what is fiction from all that is being claimed and counter claimed.
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“Didn’t you say Mathematics can’t be manipulated”
Pure mathematics can’t be. Statistics can be – and are – manipulated, in order to amend, improve or otherwise fudge the mathematics accordingly.
But of course you know that already.
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“I didn’t realise their average achieved sale price was so much lower than the national average!”
Never mind the National average, Robert – PB are falling woefully short of their own listings figures –
Average ASKING Price – £303488 (credit: Zoopla 08/05/17 @ 12.45)
#duckshoot
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I wonder what everyone will discuss after PB has failed?
Or will it?
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We’ll go back to moaning about portal subscriptions and how agents should be forced to buy any property unsold after 3 months on the market.
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How they told the liquidator that they went bust spending too much time discussing “The Purple People Eaters” (With apologies to Sheb Woolley).
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PB and the like can only keep going if someonesle is putting money into the company, as they are not profit performing to anything worth getting out of bed for. Once the investments dry up … then they will fall. All it needs is for a regulator to start looking and see if they are telling the truth. For a company that is brazen on claims, to not publish the facts …. says alot …. something to hide? Could it be the real truth? Their share price is not worth anything unless you are cashing it in and is only rising based on its own claims, no independent scrutiny. Is it typical sub-investor bashing? City hype for all your worth and jump ship with a fat profit when its been milked and likely to go no further or about to collapse?
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Profits? That’s so previous century. Now its all about users, burn rate and silos’s of data. The bigger the loss the, the greater the value as you are on a journey.
Buzzwords are the new currency!
Tesco will soon take kilobytes.
In old speak it’s known as “Musical Chairs”
Only a matter of time before they take over Zoop or R Move (or vice versa) or maybe even Uber where there is mutual compatability in their producs as home owners and renters need to get home at some stage. (I was at the prelim discussions)
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Sold Subject to Contract, shouldn’t that mean contracts were issued? If PB claim is they refer to SSTC then the figures are a lie as they do not get contracts issued every day, let alone 16 or 30 minutes. If one was to look at there actual sales, I do wonder if they are using “offers received” and not necessarily agreed, to massage THE TRUTH?
It is time the regulators stepped in, the wild west show has been going on for far to long. But then they are not pro-active!
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Thats a bit picky, I have always believed SSTC means that it is subject to a contract being issued and subsequently exchanged upon, not that a contract has been issued
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So whats under offer or sale agreed? The OFT brought out guidance over two decades ago on use of SSTC.
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As a grumpy Judge once said “Sold subject to contract – whatever that may mean”?
SSTC possibly means that someone has made an acceptable offer that may proceed to an exchange of contracts at some moment in time? “Subject to Divorce” is probably just as meaningful?
Not Sold and Sold tend to be understandable as anything else might be considered confusing to an innocent member of the public.
I always thought that “Sale Agreed” meant that the vendor was looking for a higher offer through a competitor and the purchaser actively looking to find somewhere else?
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If you get chance take a look at the other story today on EYE : ‘Sale Agreed’, ‘Under Offer’, and ‘Sold Subject to Contract’.
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What about the other PB stat:: Sale fall through every 20 seconds!
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What about PIE asking PB to confirm how many property sales they have completed over the last year up until April 30th 2017. Why should it be hard for them to answer that?
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I was going to keep my powder dry on this as seems a complete waste of time and effort debating it.
For those of you who do not know or looked into it.
PB – Is an investment vehicle, they just so happen to sell properties as a by product.
Their advertising is on point, they have an aggressive legal team.
Media, Trade-bodies, Press are running scarred of them.
The only way to beat PB is to fight them on a local level and spend time educating the public, let them know the difference between an online lister and a full service agent.
This does not mean at the point of valuation this is get your message out in a relevant, bite sized drip fed campaign from now until PB disappear or we do.
Social media, local press adverts, portals your websites, leaflet drops should all be about educating the public so they do not even entertain the idea of an online lister.
We all need to get the message out to the public.
We can bit*h and moan on here all we like but in the main we are all industry professionals and know the issues the public are the ones that need to be educated.
On that note i go back to my corner …..
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There are lies , dam lies and statistics!
I wonder if a PB property that has a sale agreed and then falls through means that for statistical purposes once another sale is agreed on the same property that is two sales achieved!
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Welcome to my world, Nick!
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