Investors told it’s wrong to assume that all estate agents are making ‘fat profits’

The influential Investors Chronicle says that, with the “clear” exception of Savills, there is no conventional estate agent whose shares it can wholeheartedly recommend.

But its ‘sector focus’ article also stops noticeably short of recommending online agents as an investment.

It says that the drought in property on the market is key and that listed estate agents – which include Countrywide, Foxtons and LSL – are dependent on housing turnover.

Investors Chronicle also says that online agents are the biggest threat to the high street.

But while it discusses Purplebricks – the first online agent to list, as expected, this week on the stock market – it gives no advice as to whether it is worth a punt.

Investors Chronicle also gives a broker opinion from Numis Securities which gives the somewhat opposing view, concluding that most home owners are reluctant to go with online agents.

Chris Millington, of Numis, says: “Sentiment is being affected by the increased recognition of online estate agents following fundraisings by Purplebricks, eMoov and easyProperty in recent months.

“These companies have seen their listings rise substantially over the course of 2015, and have very substantial ambitions for market share.

“Although these problems are still relevant, we believe that the second-hand housing market should perform better in 2016 as higher mortgage approvals and house prices finally lead to an increase in transaction volumes.

“Some of these listings will undoubtedly be taken by the online agents, but we think the shift will be less than currently expected.

“The traditional agents should continue to secure the lion’s share of listings, given the reluctance of most home owners to be early adopters of the online agency model for what is potentially the biggest transaction of their life.”

The reason that Investors Chronicle itself likes Savills so much is because the firm has diversified into overseas markets.

The article points out that only 6% of Savills’ profits this year are expected to be generated by the London residential market, and only 20% by the UK as a whole.

It adds that Foxtons looks “particularly vulnerable” because of its reliance on the top end of the housing market, where Stamp Duty Land Tax is aggressive.

The piece notes: “The company has been expanding its lettings business to compensate for the weakness in estate agency.” But with more tenants opting to stay in situ, there had been a brake on growth.

The article notes that both Countrywide and Foxtons have issued warnings on profits and says it is wrong to assume that, given big increases in house prices, all estate agents are making fat profits.

Sales volumes, says the sector focus article, is what counts and not house prices.

It also says that while most estate agents have sought to generate alternative revenue streams to lessen their dependence on selling homes, in practice these still depend heavily on housing turnover.

And while most sales agents have gone into lettings, the buy-to-let market is now endangered by tax changes.

The piece also warns: “Perhaps the biggest threat to the traditional business model comes from online agents. High street estate agents maintain that the personal touch still counts for a lot but some movers will inevitably be tempted by the cheaper option of going online.”

It goes on: “Online operators have also been given a lift from a promise buried deep in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement.

“Specific details have yet to emerge, but the thrust of the Government’s intention seems to be to reduce barriers for alternative business structures.”

The article is here

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