In recent years I have become a property sector Nostradamus, predicting with uncanny accuracy the big events and trends in our industry 12 months hence.
House prices, acquisition activity, firings… you name it and I’ve foreseen it.
So, my crystal balls are again polished and bursting with prognostications of what 2026 holds for us.
Here are my 10 prophecies for next year:
1/ Let’s start with the portals and take each one in turn:
Rightmove will see further falls in its share price as the City reacts to negative investor sentiment over its apparent lack of understanding as to how AI search behaviour will develop in practice. Expect a further £500m to come off its value.
Zoopla will be sold but for much, much less than its £2bn purchase price as Money, uSwitch, Hometrack, Confused and its software entities are split and sold off separately.
OnTheMarket to continue to not make the news – for all the wrong reasons. CoStar’s boredom with the ‘also ran’ portal results in no re-brand and no big-bang marketing still.
2/ House prices – up 3% at year end as a UK average as the government’s attempts to kill the economy miss the housing market as wages grow, mortgage rates drop and, somehow, positive sentiment remains.
3/ The housing market sees a different kind of north vs south divide. Not geographical as is traditional but on price… the regular market performs well but Prime and Super Prime struggle with lack of demand as the ‘wealthy’ exit the country and with the Chancellor squeezing the pips on entrepreneurs and corporate Britain still further.
4/ A new Housing Minister will be installed, obviously (because we always have more than one per year).
5/ And a new Prime Minister too.
6/ The mass consolidation of estate agencies and letting agency businesses to gain traction as I first predicted in January 2024 with Foxtons, Dexters, LRG, Lomond and new kids on the block Dwelly fighting like ferrets in a sack over the few remaining 20+ branch entities to buy. Hence smaller 10+ companies will become targets.
Note: There are only 100 or so independent businesses of this size left to devour.
7/ The number of self-employed estate agent individuals will double from the c.1500 currently to around 3000 as the tipping point nears which takes this popular and growing sub-sector towards an ultimate 20% share of all agents (not agencies) within the next five years.
8/ The Bank of England base rate will stabilise at 3.5% as the fiscal economy weakens but inflation is somewhat tamed.
9/ 100,000 residential landlords exit the PRS, fed up with attack after attack on their good intentions.
10/ England do not win the football World Cup, crashing out in the early stages (again) to deluded, beer-soaked chants of ‘It’s Coming Home’. It really isn’t.
Oh, and as for Scotland… it’s not going there either.
OK, my octopus is back in its cupboard for another year but mark my words these are all facts just waiting to happen. Disagree or agree? I’m sure you’ll comment.
Have a great Christmas, a fabulous New Year and a predictable 2026. It’ll be fine.
Russell Quirk is our resident pier-end soothsayer and also co-founder of property PR specialists ProperPR.
Nostra Quirkus – the property industry soothsayer who always calls it right (well almost)
2.8 million Landlords and only 100k leaving, easy triple that.
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Will be far more than 100k
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Mr Many Units and fromRichmond .. Would it surprise you the NET number of UK private rental properties has grown in the last 3 or 4 years? It’s tiny amounts – yet it’s still grown. If you are open minded to it – happy to jump in a Call and show you the data
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Yes Lloyds are now the largest private LL
Small investors are getting out
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https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/english-private-landlord-survey-segmenting-the-business-models-of-private-landlords/main-report-english-private-landlord-survey-segmenting-the-business-models-of-private-landlords
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All very plausible and likely. What about last year’s predictions though? How did they pan out for you?
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I think the Octopus is on the money Russell, luckily basic Supply and Demand overpowers Government Policy almost all of the time.
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Very useful predictions. Good read – well done Russell.
Point 7 is underestimated – clearly a significant surge in lone agents and good luck to them, having located a niche and coupled with efficient use of Ai, that element of the sector will rise to near double your prediction. More redundancies from the corporate will inflate it further. As a mid-sized high street agent with multiple offices and an average sales price of over £700,000, against predictions, we have somehow outperformed the previous year and most importantly staff are feeling positive about the year ahead.
Our modest rental portfolio has organically grown from 290 to 350. Fees have increased. Many of our landlords are accidental (inherited or have struggled to sell with generally with no mortgage to service) and are content with the status quo, and mindful of the pending RRA2025 changes. Regardless of which way one leans politically, any credible economist will confirm the government picked up a @@@@sandwich, following a bumpy Brexit divorce, some 5 prime ministers and countless housing ministers (what, 16 in 13 years!?) over a few years. The UK residential market will slowly, but steadily gain confidence, as the all-important swap rates, inflation and indeed base rates fall; resulting in more confidence returning to buyers. 2026 will be a steady and productive year for the UK housing market in my view!
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